What return can you expect from a villa on Nusa Penida?
Last reviewed: August 2026
Introduction
The numbers
This page does not tell you what to expect. It shows you how to work it out, so you can run the same calculation on any property you are offered, including ours.
Every figure in the worked example below is illustrative. It uses realistic market ratios to demonstrate the method. It is not the performance of any specific property. Always request verified booking data before investing in anything.
The guide
Two parts. Start wherever your question is.
The market
Visitor numbers, land prices, infrastructure and why Nusa Penida is at an early stage.
The numbers
How to calculate net yield, what running costs really are, and what the figures do not show.
What is the difference between gross yield and net yield?
Gross yield is your rental income divided by purchase price. Net yield is what is left after every cost of running the property. In Indonesian villa investment, the gap between the two is usually 40 to 50 percent of the headline figure.
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| What the brochure says | What it usually means | What you actually receive |
|---|---|---|
| 20 percent yield | gross, before all costs | 10 to 12 percent net |
| 15 percent yield | gross, before all costs | 7 to 9 percent net |
| 18 percent net | after all costs, if stated | 18 percent net |
The single most useful question you can ask any seller in Indonesia is this: is that before or after costs, and can I see the cost lines? If the answer is vague, the number is gross.
What are the running costs of a villa on Nusa Penida?
The cost lines that determine whether a villa performs are staff, utilities, OTA commission, maintenance, consumables, management and tax, plus two that owners routinely forget.
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- Staff. Villa manager, housekeeping, gardening, security, pool maintenance.
- Utilities. Electricity, water, internet. Higher here than mainland Bali because of supply constraints.
- Waste. Collection and disposal, which is not a given on an island.
- OTA commission. Booking.com, Airbnb, Agoda, Ctrip. Typically the largest single line after staff.
- Maintenance and repairs. Ongoing, plus the periodic large items most owners forget.
- Consumables. Laundry, amenities, cleaning supplies, welcome items.
- Management fee.
- Tax.
The cost nobody budgets for
Sea logistics. Every replacement air conditioner, sofa, mattress and pump crosses on a boat. Budget a premium on anything physical.
The other cost nobody budgets for
Capital replacement. Furniture, air conditioning units, pumps and paintwork all have a lifespan. If a seller's numbers do not include a reserve for this, add 5 to 8 percent of gross revenue yourself and recalculate.
How do you calculate the return on a Nusa Penida villa?
Divide net annual income by purchase price. The difficulty is never the arithmetic, it is getting an honest net income figure with the cost lines behind it.
Illustrative worked example
Scenario: An existing, operating villa on Nusa Penida. Leasehold with 20 years remaining. Purchase price USD 150,000.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Purchase price | USD 150,000 |
| Lease remaining | 20 years |
| Occupancy | 66 percent, 240 nights per year |
| Gross rate per night | USD 189 |
| Net after all costs per night | USD 106 |
| Net margin | 56 percent |
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Nights rented | 240 |
| Gross revenue | USD 45,360 |
| Net income | USD 25,440 |
| Net cash return | 17.0 percent |
| Payback period | 5.9 years |
| Scenario | Nights per month | Occupancy | Net per year | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong year | 20 | 66 percent | USD 25,440 | 17.0 percent |
| On target | 17.7 | 58 percent | USD 22,500 | 15.0 percent |
| Weak year | 15 | 49 percent | USD 19,080 | 12.7 percent |
Read the bottom row carefully. That is the real test of an investment: not what it does when everything goes right, but what it does when it does not.
What do the numbers not show you?
Four things: leasehold expiry, major maintenance reserves, currency risk, and the fact that any future rate increase is a forecast rather than a fact.
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Leasehold expires
After the lease term the asset is worth nothing unless the lease is extended. Amortising the purchase price across the term materially reduces the economic return compared with the cash return. Both figures are correct, they simply answer different questions. Cash return is not wealth creation.
Major maintenance may not be in the figures
If a reserve for furniture, air conditioning, pumps and paintwork is not included, add 5 to 8 percent of gross revenue. That reduces the return by roughly 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points.
Currency risk is real
Income arrives in rupiah. Your investment is likely in euro or dollars. A weakening rupiah reduces your return directly, with no operational cause.
Rate increases are an assumption, not a fact
Any projection of higher nightly rates is a forecast. Being fully booked at current rates usually signals pricing headroom, but it remains a forecast. Judge any property on its current rates first.
Is it better to buy an existing villa or build a new one on Nusa Penida?
Buying an existing villa is currently the stronger position, because land costs on Nusa Penida have risen five to six times in five years while nightly rates have not. An existing villa carries a land cost from a market that no longer exists.
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| Risk | New build | Existing villa |
|---|---|---|
| Construction cost overrun | high | none |
| Permit approval | uncertain, especially under the Klungkung moratorium | already granted |
| Build delay | 12 to 24 months of no income | income from day one |
| Demand unknown | projected | evidenced by booking history |
And one thing you gain: a booking history. You are not buying a projection, you are buying a track record you can audit before you commit. Ask for it. Occupancy month by month, average rate, source of bookings, and the cost ledger. Any seller who will not show you these is telling you something.
How long before you get your money back?
Divide the purchase price by the net annual income. If a seller cannot give you a net annual income figure with cost lines behind it, you cannot calculate payback, and you should not proceed.
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In the illustrative example above, payback falls just under six years. After that, the remaining lease term produces income on an asset that has already repaid itself.
The method matters more than the number. Run it yourself on every property you consider.
Who will buy the property from you later?
Exit routes on Nusa Penida are currently narrower than in Bali, and this deserves honest consideration before you buy.
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Realistic buyers at exit are other foreign investors, with the pool growing as the island develops; regional hospitality operators consolidating small portfolios; and domestic Indonesian investors, an increasingly active segment.
The constraint of leasehold
A lease with eight years remaining is worth far less than one with twenty. Value declines as the term shortens, which means your exit timing is not entirely flexible. Plan the exit when you enter.
The factor working in your favour
Rising demand alongside restricted new supply supports the value of existing permitted properties. But an illiquid market is still an illiquid market, and you should assume a sale takes longer here than in Canggu.
Continue reading
The market
Visitor numbers, land prices, infrastructure and why Nusa Penida is at an early stage.
The numbers
How to calculate net yield, what running costs really are, and what the figures do not show.
Next step
Run the numbers on a real villa.
The villas we currently have for sale are listed in our investment collection. If you would rather simply ask, message us directly.